Progress and failure are nonlinear and compounding, so a small avoidable error that is corrected early has an outsized effect, while an uncorrected error accelerates into a downward spiral. Agent reliability work should monitor the trajectory of the error rate and intervene at the first wrong action rather than waiting for aggregate quality metrics to drop.
This changes where failure-detection and correction resources are placed: not on post-hoc rollback or retraining after a task fails, but on continuous early local evaluation and small corrective interventions that prevent an exponential failure trajectory.
In any self-improving control system, the expected cost of an error grows nonlinearly with how long it is left uncorrected; therefore early detection must be treated as a first-class architectural requirement.
Progress and failure operate non-linearly; improvement accelerates success, while failure accelerates downward spirals.
Catch downward spirals early by making small, consistent correct choices.